Dean

Well, The governor has declared a state of emergency. The forecast models have been bouncing all over today, an earlier run of the GFDL model had it coming about 50 miles to the west of New Orleans. The last run has it in south central Texas while the other models have diverged across various parts of Mexico. The problem is that wind shear is low and the high pressure over the Gulf is dissipating which means Dean basically steers itself by internal changes and contact with land. By Sunday we'll be within 3 day model projections, which are way more accurate. If an evacuation is called here, it'll happen Sunday evening. Here's the latest model run:



Anyway, people are here are starting to sweat a bit. I think it's unlikely we're going to have a problem but we're starting to think about getting ready to evacuate.